Botswana's 2024 Election Milestone and the Quest for True Representation.

Pic Credit: Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) supporters leave the final rally in Tlokweng, east of Gaborone, Botswana October 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thalefang Charles

The 2024 Botswana general election marked a historic moment in the nation's political landscape, heralded as a triumph of democracy in Southern Africa. Since gaining independence in 1966, Botswana has maintained a consistent record of holding regular democratic elections, though the political sphere has been dominated by the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) for nearly six decades.

The BDP's governance has been characterized by remarkable stability, successfully managing internal leadership transitions through five presidents: Seretse Khama, Quett Masire, Festus Mogae, Ian Khama, and Mokgweetsi Masisi. The 2024 elections marked a dramatic shift in this established pattern of political continuity. Duma Boko of the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) secured victory after his third attempt at the presidency, ending the BDP's uninterrupted rule since independence.

Democracy's Double Edge

While many observers celebrate this peaceful transition of power as the "end of an era" for the BDP, a deeper analysis of the election results reveals a more nuanced picture. Despite losing its parliamentary majority, the BDP maintained a significant share of the popular vote. This outcome highlights a crucial aspect of Botswana's electoral system that warrants examination.

Botswana uses the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) majority system for both National Assembly and Local Government elections. This system means that the candidate who receives the most votes in a constituency wins the seat. Interestingly, Botswana does not have direct presidential elections. Instead, the President is elected by members of the National Assembly following general elections. Candidates for the National Assembly state on the ballot paper which presidential candidate they support.

The 2024 Botswana election results reveal several significant insights about the country's political landscape. The UDC emerged as the leading party with 36.9% of the total votes, while the long-ruling BDP secured 30.2% of the votes. The Botswana Congress Party (BCP) maintained a substantial presence with 20.7%, while smaller parties like BPF and RAP garnered 8.2% and 2.3% respectively. The results demonstrate a notably fragmented political landscape.

 The election outcome indicates that no party achieved an absolute majority, with the UDC winning with a plurality rather than a majority. The BDP, despite losing power, maintained a strong voter base, suggesting it remains a significant political force. The election results demonstrate the potential disparities that can arise under the First Past-the-Post (FPTP) electoral system. Under this system, a party can win the majority of seats without necessarily securing the majority of total votes cast. This creates a situation where parliamentary representation may not accurately reflect the true distribution of voter preferences across the nation.

Party	Vote Share	Analysis
UDC	36.9%	Ruling party but lacks absolute majority (popular vote)
BDP	30.2%	Strong opposition presence in parliament
BCP	20.7%	Significant third force
Others	12.1%	Combined smaller parties and invalid votes

This distribution of votes highlights the effects of the FPTP system, where a party can form a government without securing more than 50% of the votes. The UDC's victory with 36.9% demonstrates this phenomenon. The system give rise to disproportional representation by creating significant disparities between votes received and parliamentary seats won. Furthermore, the system operates on a "winner-take-all" principle where candidates can win seats with just a plurality of votes, not necessarily a majority.

This is not to say the FPTP is undesirable in democracies. Far from it, while the system has contributed to some democratic deficiencies, it has demonstrated significant advantages in Botswana's political landscape, distinguishing it from many other African nations. The system has been instrumental in producing a stable and accountable political system since independence, fostering democratic consolidation through consistent electoral processes. One of its key strengths lies in creating effective links between Members of Parliament and their constituencies, as representatives are directly accountable to specific geographic areas. This direct accountability has helped maintain political stability and democratic governance in Botswana, making it a notable exception in a continent where many countries have struggled with political instability. The system's success in Botswana demonstrates that despite its limitations, FPTP can effectively support democratic development when properly implemented within appropriate institutional frameworks and political culture.

A What-If Scenario

What if Botswana’s electoral system was under a Proportional Representation system (PRs)? Botswana's parliamentary composition would differ markedly from the current FPTP outcomes. With 61 parliamentary seats, the allocation would more closely mirror the actual voter preferences, creating a more representative legislature that accurately reflects the electorate's choices. This alternative distribution would fundamentally transform the political landscape, potentially fostering more inclusive governance and coalition-building among parties.

Proportional Seat Distribution

Party	Vote %	Seats
UDC	36.9%	23
BDP	30.2%	18
BCP	20.7%	13
BPF	8.2%	5
RAP	2.3%	1
Others	1.6%	1

This distribution would more accurately reflect the actual voter preferences across the country and will give rise to a more representative parliament. Based on the PR system and election results, Botswana's political landscape would have shifted towards a more diverse parliament. The ruling UDC would have fallen short of securing an absolute majority, necessitating the formation of alliances to govern effectively. This scenario would open the door for smaller parties, such as the Real Alternative Party (RAP), to gain parliamentary representation for the first time. Meanwhile, the BDP, under this model, would maintain a strong opposition presence with an estimated 18 seats, ensuring a robust system of checks and balances in the legislative process.

The BDP's strong opposition presence in this scenario would have led to a more dynamic, competitive, and potentially more effective democratic system in Botswana. It would mark a significant evolution in the country's political landscape, moving it closer to a truly multi-party democracy with regular alternation of power. In addition, this potential outcome would have suggested a more collaborative and inclusive political environment in Botswana's future, where coalition-building and cross-party negotiations may have become increasingly important for effective governance.

Furthermore, this system would have ensured more democratic representation by ensuring that nearly all votes contribute to parliamentary representation, with only very small parties (BMD) and independents failing to secure seats due to their extremely low vote share. This proportional distribution demonstrates how a different electoral system could fundamentally alter the power dynamics in Botswana's parliament while potentially providing a more accurate reflection of voter preferences.

Democratic Implications and Future Considerations

This historic transition, while marking a triumph for democratic principles, highlights the pressing need for electoral system reform in Botswana. The stark disparity between popular vote share and parliamentary seat allocation underscores fundamental questions about democratic representation. Though the peaceful transfer of power reflects the maturity of Botswana's democratic institutions, it also emphasizes the urgency for electoral reform to better reflect voter preferences.

The remarkably low percentage of spoilt ballots (1.0%) and independent candidates (0.5%) demonstrates both the efficiency of the electoral process and voters' strong alignment with established political parties. This successful democratic exercise, marked by citizens' peaceful participation, provides an opportune moment to consider reforms that would enhance the system's representativeness while maintaining its stability.

Beyond the Election

As Botswana enters a new political era under UDC leadership, the nation faces both opportunities and challenges. The 2024 election not only marks a significant milestone in the country's democratic journey but also opens up important discussions about the nature of representation and the potential for electoral reform. As the country moves forward, balancing the stability that has characterized its politics with the need for more representative governance will be crucial in shaping Botswana's democratic future.

Taona Mwanyisa, the Managing Partner of @TDGHRconsult, is a specialist in election-related support with a diverse clientele including electoral management bodies, political parties, civil society organizations, civil registries, and law enforcement agencies.