Echoes of the Past, Demands of the Present : Lessons from the 2024 Elections for Liberation Movements in Southern Africa

Introduction

The 2024 electoral cycle in Southern Africa heralded a significant juncture in the region's democratic journey. Key democracies, including Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa, whose political histories are intricately linked with liberation struggles, encountered fresh challenges to their legitimacy, popular participation, and institutional adaptability. This paper scrutinizes the role of liberation movements as dominant political forces in post-liberation democracies, examining recent trends in voter behavior, ideological and structural transformations, and their broader implications for the evolution of party systems and democratic consolidation. This analysis is presented for the Symposium on Rethinking Democracy in Southern Africa: Lessons from the 2024 Electoral Cycle.

Trends in Voter Behaviour and Party Loyalty in Namibia and Mozambique

Namibia

The South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), long synonymous with Namibia's liberation and post-independence governance, has witnessed a notable decline in its political dominance over the past decade. After guiding the country to independence in 1990, SWAPO initially enjoyed near-universal support, particularly among older generations who regarded the party as the embodiment of national freedom and unity. Its liberation credentials fostered deep emotional and historical loyalty, leading to overwhelming electoral victories and a stable parliamentary majority for almost three decades.

However, this legacy has come under increasing pressure. Since 2019, SWAPO's vote share has steadily eroded, culminating in its most challenging electoral cycle in 2024. The party lost its two-thirds majority in the National Assembly for the first time since independence, and its presidential candidate, Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, faced strong competition from a revitalized opposition, including the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC), the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) movement, and the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) [Sizo Nkala].

Several factors have contributed to this decline. Namibia’s electorate is increasingly composed of younger voters who lack direct ties to the liberation struggle. For this demographic, SWAPO’s historical narrative holds less sway than its performance on contemporary issues such as unemployment, inequality, and corruption. SWAPO's diminishing appeal is most pronounced among urban dwellers and the post-independence youth. These demographics increasingly perceive the party's liberation credentials as less relevant to current socio-economic challenges, leading to significant disaffection [Martin Duffy]. Consequently, many young voters are attracted to new opposition parties, including those emerging from civil society or breakaway factions within SWAPO itself. This urban discontent is further highlighted by SWAPO's loss of control in key urban centers such as Windhoek and Walvis Bay.

The party's credibility has been severely undermined by high-profile corruption scandals, most notably the "Fishrot" case, which involved alleged bribery by foreign fishing companies. Compounding these issues, Namibia continues to grapple with significant economic challenges, including persistently high unemployment, particularly among the youth, widespread economic inequality, and the lingering impacts of both drought and the COVID-19 pandemic. Voters express high confidence in their freedom of choice, although trust in electoral institutions is declining. The proliferation of minority parties, many with SWAPO roots, reflects a diversifying but still fragile opposition landscape.

Despite these setbacks, SWAPO remains a formidable political force, bolstered by its deep rural networks, historical legacy, and organizational infrastructure. However, the 2024 elections may signal a turning point, ushering Namibia into a more competitive multiparty era. The party’s capacity to adapt to shifting demographics, rebuild public trust, and articulate a forward-looking vision will determine its continued relevance in a rapidly evolving political landscape.

Mozambique

Since leading Mozambique to independence in 1975, the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO) has maintained uninterrupted control over the country’s political landscape. Its liberation legacy, rooted in anti-colonial struggle and socialist ideals, initially garnered widespread reverence and loyalty. For decades, FRELIMO was viewed not merely as a ruling party, but as the architect of national identity and sovereignty. Early elections reflected overwhelming support for FRELIMO, underpinned by hopes for peace and improved living conditions.

However, in recent years, public skepticism has intensified, and FRELIMO’s once-unshakable dominance now faces mounting challenges. The 2024 general elections, marred by allegations of fraud and violent repression, have exposed deep fractures in the party’s relationship with the electorate. This has been attributed to several factors. After the peace accord in 1992, the first multiparty elections saw high turnout (nearly 88%), as voters were eager for peace and reform. However, disillusionment set in by the late 1990s and early 2000s as public services deteriorated and living costs rose [EISA Election Updates]. Voter turnout dropped sharply, down to 14.6% in the 1998 local elections and 63.7% abstention in the 2004 general elections.

In 2024, turnout dropped to just over 43% for both races, marking the lowest rate in two decades. Although FRELIMO maintained dominance, support became more instrumental and less ideological. Party loyalty has weakened, with growing skepticism about politicians’ responsiveness and fairness in the system. As opposition parties such as RENAMO and later MDM emerged, party alignments became more fluid, though FRELIMO remains structurally advantaged. The last two decades witnessed increased polarization, but also a rise in unaffiliated, floating, or protest voters.

Recent elections reveal more citizens identifying as politically disengaged or unaffiliated, with less automatic party allegiance and mounting doubts about accountability and democracy. Recent data reveals a significant shift among Mozambicans towards supporting multiparty competition and rejecting one-party rule. Between 2002 and 2022, support for multiparty democracy rose from 44% to 67%, while rejection of one-party rule reached a two-decade high of 64% in 2022 [Afrobarometer]. Public trust in both FRELIMO and RENAMO (Mozambique’s main opposition) is declining, and more citizens identify as unaffiliated or disengaged. Many recognize the electoral process as important, but doubt their votes can hold leaders accountable in practice.

 

Ideological and Structural Shifts in Traditional Dominant Parties in Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique

Unlike its regional counterparts, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was not an armed liberation movement, yet it has maintained continuous rule for nearly 60 years. The BDP now faces internal factionalism, breakaways, and economic pressures that have strengthened the opposition and tested its cohesion. The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and other opposition forces

have made significant electoral advances, fueled by popular discontent over inequality and the state of the economy.

Both SWAPO in Namibia and the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa have experienced plummeting electoral performance. Traditional narratives of liberation are losing traction among "born free" generations, for whom current governance, corruption, and service delivery hold greater importance. Declining party unity, leadership disputes, and the emergence of splinter groups have contributed to more fragmented and competitive party systems. Notably, the ANC’s loss of majority in 2024 led to South Africa’s first national coalition government since 1994, while opposition parties now control key Namibian cities.

The ideological lines between FRELIMO and RENAMO have blurred, with recent elections showing unexpected alliances between dissident members of both parties. The challenge to the status quo now originates from both within and outside the traditional party structures.

Implications for Party System Evolution and Democratic Consolidation

The steady decline in electoral dominance by liberation movements is giving rise to more pluralistic and competitive party systems across the region. South Africa’s transition to coalition governance, the empowerment of opposition parties in Namibia and Botswana, and Mozambique’s contested elections all signal this shift. This erosion of old loyalties creates space for new political actors and ideas. Young, urban voters, less bound to liberation history, are driving demand for accountability, social justice, and transparent governance.

While pluralism is increasing, declining trust in electoral institutions and persistent socio-economic inequalities pose risks. Mozambique’s post-election conflicts and weak opposition structures in Namibia and Botswana underscore the need for stronger institutional frameworks and civic engagement. Despite setbacks, the 2024 elections showcased a maturing electorate and the resilience of democratic institutions, particularly in the peaceful transfer of power and acceptance of coalition politics in South Africa and Botswana.

The 2024 electoral experiences in Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa mark a turning point for liberation movements in post-liberation democracies. As the narratives of liberation recede, voter behavior and party loyalty are increasingly shaped by performance, accountability, and governance. The region’s shift towards more competitive, if fractured, party systems presents both an opportunity for democratic renewal and a challenge for institutional consolidation.